or, Ben Cousins was Too Gentle
On Wednesday of GDC, Ben Cousins of ngmoco delivered easily one of my top talks of the show, “When the Consoles Die, What Comes Next?” This succinct talk painted a clear picture of the collapse of the Cinema relative to TV and a similar collapse of Arcade relative to Console. Cousins’ hypothesis stated that a transition is already underway; Console is rapidly giving way to Mobile, and in the near future Gree will be to Nintendo what Nintendo is to SNK.
This picture was painted using a variety of data sources: historical data on market capitalization for key companies, year-over-year market size of Arcade vs. Console, losses of Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices division, etc. In one slide on comparing annual arcade revenue to console revenue, Cousins highlighted two years where the markets were roughly equal as the tipping point from which Arcade would never recover.